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2025 Oscar Predictions: IMDb’s Early Contenders

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2025 Oscar Predictions: IMDb’s Early Contenders

With the 95th Academy Awards still fresh in our minds, it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the 2025 Oscars. While the field of contenders is still wide open, IMDb’s data provides valuable insights into the films and performances that are generating early buzz.

Based on IMDb’s user ratings, here are the top predictions for the major Oscar categories:

Best Picture

• The Whale (2024)
• Tár (2022)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022)
• The Fabelmans (2022)
• Top Gun: Maverick (2022)

Analysis: "The Whale" and "Tár" have been critical darlings since their festival debuts, earning praise for their powerful performances and thought-provoking narratives. "Everything Everywhere All at Once" has emerged as a surprise hit, captivating audiences with its multiverse-spanning story and imaginative visuals. "The Fabelmans" is a deeply personal film from Steven Spielberg, exploring his childhood and the origins of his filmmaking passion. "Top Gun: Maverick" has proven to be a massive commercial success, with critics commending its thrilling action sequences and nostalgic appeal.

Best Director

• Darren Aronofsky (The Whale)
• Todd Field (Tár)
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
• Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)

Analysis: Darren Aronofsky has a strong track record of critical acclaim, and his latest film, "The Whale," is expected to continue that trend. Todd Field’s "Tár" has garnered widespread praise for its nuanced direction and Cate Blanchett’s tour-de-force performance. The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) have proven their creative prowess with "Everything Everywhere All at Once," a film that defies genre conventions. Steven Spielberg is a legendary filmmaker, and his deeply personal "The Fabelmans" is poised to be another masterpiece. Joseph Kosinski has delivered a thrilling and visually stunning blockbuster with "Top Gun: Maverick," showcasing his directorial skills.

Best Actor

• Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
• Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Austin Butler (Elvis)
• Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
• Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Analysis: Brendan Fraser is making a triumphant return to the spotlight with his powerful performance as a reclusive English teacher in "The Whale." Colin Farrell delivers a tour-de-force as a conflicted islander in "The Banshees of Inisherin." Austin Butler has impressed critics with his uncanny portrayal of Elvis Presley in "Elvis." Paul Mescal gives a heartbreaking performance as a young father struggling with mental health in "Aftersun." Tom Cruise continues to defy age and expectations with his adrenaline-fueled performance in "Top Gun: Maverick."

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett (Tár)
• Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
• Margot Robbie (Babylon)
• Saoirse Ronan (See How They Run)

Analysis: Cate Blanchett is a frontrunner for her mesmerizing performance as a world-renowned conductor in "Tár." Michelle Yeoh delivers a multiverse-hopping tour-de-force in "Everything Everywhere All at Once." Michelle Williams shines as Steven Spielberg’s mother in "The Fabelmans." Margot Robbie is set to make a splash with her role as a silent film star in "Babylon." Saoirse Ronan is always a force to be reckoned with, and her latest performance as a feisty detective in "See How They Run" is sure to impress.

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
• Eddie Murphy (Babylon)
• Paul Dano (The Whale)

Analysis: Brendan Gleeson is a scene-stealer as Colin Farrell’s grumpy neighbor in "The Banshees of Inisherin." Ke Huy Quan delivers a heartwarming and hilarious performance as a laundromat owner in "Everything Everywhere All at Once." Judd Hirsch provides a poignant and memorable turn as Steven Spielberg’s father in "The Fabelmans." Eddie Murphy is making a comeback with his role as a flamboyant jazz musician in "Babylon." Paul Dano gives a heartbreaking performance as Brendan Fraser’s estranged daughter in "The Whale."

Best Supporting Actress

• Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
• Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
• Claire Foy (Women Talking)

Analysis: Kerry Condon is a standout as Colin Farrell’s sister in "The Banshees of Inisherin." Jamie Lee Curtis is a scene-stealer as a cynical IRS auditor in "Everything Everywhere All at Once." Michelle Williams has a dual role as Steven Spielberg’s mother and aunt in "The Fabelmans." Angela Bassett is expected to make a strong showing as Queen Ramonda in "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever." Claire Foy gives a powerful performance as a woman grappling with trauma in "Women Talking."

Other Contenders

Beyond the major categories, several other films and performances are generating early buzz:

• Babylon (Damien Chazelle)

• The Killer (David Fincher)

• Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

• Asteroid City (Wes Anderson)

• Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)

• Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)

• Daniel Kaluuya (Nope)

• Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling)

• Timothée Chalamet (Bones & All)

• Keke Palmer (Nope)

Methodology

IMDb’s Oscar predictions are based on a combination of factors, including user ratings, popularity, and industry buzz. IMDb users can rate films on a scale of 1 to 10, and these ratings are used to calculate the average score for each film. IMDb also tracks the number of page views for each film, which provides an indication of popularity. In addition, IMDb considers industry buzz, such as reviews from critics and awards season predictions.

Disclaimer

It’s important to note that these predictions are based on early data and are subject to change as more films are released and the awards season progresses. The actual Oscar nominees and winners will be announced in early 2025.

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